Case Study

Rwanda’s Economic Transformation

GDP tripled in two decades in a country rebuilt from genocide.

Rwanda
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In 1994, Rwanda experienced a genocide that killed between 800,000 and 1.2 million people in approximately one hundred days.1 GDP declined by more than forty percent that year. The country's institutional, economic, and social infrastructure was destroyed.

Under President Paul Kagame, Rwanda launched Vision 2020 at the turn of the millennium, a strategic plan to rebuild the country and reach middle-income status.2 Between 2001 and 2015, real GDP growth averaged approximately eight percent annually.3 GDP per capita tripled from roughly $250 in the early 2000s to over $800 by 2018. Poverty fell from seventy-eight percent after the genocide to thirty-eight percent by 2017.

8%
Rwanda's average annual GDP growth rate from 2001 to 2015.

The World Bank's Doing Business index ranked Rwanda twenty-ninth in 2019, the only low-income country in the top thirty, ahead of France, Russia, and Spain.4 The Rwanda Development Board, formed in 2008, served as a one-stop shop for business regulations and foreign investment, overseeing more than two billion dollars in investments in 2018.

Vision 2050, launched in December 2020, set new targets: upper-middle-income status by 2035 and high-income status by 2050.5 Life expectancy, which had collapsed during the genocide, exceeded sixty-seven years by 2018, far above the average for countries at similar income levels. The transformation involved trade-offs, including restrictions on political pluralism and press freedom, that remain the subject of ongoing international debate.

1994
The genocide destroyed Rwanda's economic and social infrastructure, with GDP declining over forty percent.
2000
Rwanda launched Vision 2020, a national development plan aiming for middle-income status.
2019
Rwanda ranked twenty-ninth in the World Bank's Doing Business index, the only low-income country in the top thirty.
2020
Vision 2050 set targets for upper-middle-income status by 2035 and high-income status by 2050.
1 Government of Rwanda, official genocide commemorations; United Nations estimates.
2 Government of Rwanda, Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, "Rwanda Vision 2020" (Kigali: MINECOFIN, 2000).
3 International Monetary Fund, "The Development Path Less Traveled: The Experience of Rwanda," Departmental Paper No. 2020/007 (Washington, DC: IMF, 2020).
4 World Bank, Doing Business 2019 (Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2019).
5 Government of Rwanda, Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, "Vision 2050" (Kigali: MINECOFIN, 2020).
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